Market momentum likely to take a pause

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The week gone by began on a subdued note losing on the first two trading days and then gaining on the next three to end the week on a strong note. BSESENSEX gained 850.15 points or 2.42 per cent to close at 36,021.42 points while NIFTY gained 224.35 points or 2.16 per cent to close at 10,607.35 points. The broader market saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.95 per cent, 1.77 and 1.63 respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.23 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was the odd one out losing 0.22 per cent.

The Indian Rupee gained 1.03 or 1.36 per cent to close at Rs 74.63 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained 623.35 points or 2.49 per cent to close at 25,638.90 points.

Half the calendar year 2020 has passed and it's a good time to take stock of the broad movement of the markets over the past six months. BSESENSEX began the year at a level of 41,253.74 points and made a high of 42,273.87 points in January itself. Thereafter it drifted before falling very sharply in March and making a bottom at 25,638.90 points. From this low made on March 24, markets have been gaining and closed at 36,021.42 points. Broadly speaking they gained 1,000 points in January, then lost 16,600 points till March and since then have gained 10,400 points, making a total of 28,000 points which is about 70 per cent of the base at the beginning of the year of 41,253.74 points. Similar numbers for NIFTY are 12,168.45 points at beginning of year, 12,430.50 points which was the top of the year so far in January, 7,511.10 points the low in March and 10,607.35 points the current value. The total movement here is about 8,300 points which is a similar 68-69% of the value of NIFTY at the beginning of the year. The point being emphasised is the strong movement that we have had so far taking into account the pandemic, tension along the borders and global reasons. With six months more to go one can expect significant change yet to happen.

Ruchi Soya is in the news ever since Patanjali bought the company under the IBC rules. The stock has been gaining non stop until the beginning of this week. On Monday (June 29) it rose to hit a high of Rs 1,535 and then hit the lower circuit at Rs 1,432. It hit lower circuit on all the five days of the week to finally close at Rs 1,166. Another stock which has been in the news from the Smallcap segment behaving similarly was Alok Industries which hit a high of Rs 61.40 on Friday (July 3) and then closed at the lower circuit of Rs 55.60. Will Alok Industries follow Ruchi Soya the same way only time will tell. The media had got after these two companies and more so Ruchi Soya and repeatedly questioned the rise in price and why SEBI was not investigating.

KKR has acquired an almost 40 per cent stake in JB Chemicals at a price of Rs 745 per share. The share price of JB Chemicals closed at Rs 718 on Friday. The deal would trigger an open offer wherein KKR would acquire up to 26 per cent of the shares from the present shareholders. The share price of the company has seen a massive upsurge from Rs 425 to the current price of over Rs 700 in the last three months.

The number of people affected globally by covid-19 has reached 110.53 lacs with 5.25 lac people having died and 61.91 lac people having recovered. In India the number of affected people has increased to 6,33,381 people with 13,281 deaths and 3,83,936 people having recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world has seen 9.66 lac new patients, 88,600 deaths and 7.25 lac people having recovered. In India we have had 2.22 lac new patients, 5,040 deaths and 1.55 lac people recovering.

Coming to the markets, they continue to gain ground as we have FPI's and domestic institutions investing in the markets. On days we find either FPI or Domestic institution buying with the other selling, while on some days both are buyers and, on some days, both are sellers. In totality there is net inflow which keeps the momentum and trajectory upwards. How much more and how far is a very difficult call and almost impossible to predict. Suffice to say that the time has come to begin taking money of the table and waiting for markets to decide their future course of action. It would be extremely difficult for markets to continue to gain significantly from current levels without a meaningful correction. Book profits, but refrain from shorting at current levels.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

--IANS

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